OFFBEAT MAIL

 Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region slowed to an estimated 7.5 percent in 2012, from 8.3 percent in 2011, largely due to weak external demand and policy actions in China to contain inflation. Growth in the region, excluding China, slowed less quickly due to robust domestic demand. Economic activity throughout the region accelerated toward the end of the year as global financial markets stabilized and policies in China became more accommodative. Regional GDP growth is projected to pick up to 7.9 percent in 2013 before stabilizing at around 7.5 percent by 2015, with China’s economy expanding at 8.4 percent in 2013, before easing to 7.9 percent by 2015. Ex-China, regional growth is forecast to average 5.9 percent over 2013-2015 on strong domestic demand and intensified global trade flows. GDP growth in Europe and Central Asia is estimated to have slowed sharply to 3 percent in 2012 from 5.5 percent in 2011 as the region faced significant headwinds, including weak external dem...

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported 2.0 percent growth in real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2012. U.S. economic growth is slow, but not slowing. It is difficult for the domestic economy to grow any more robustly, given the relatively soft pace of consumption and investment, weak sentiment among businesses, continued austerity for state and local government spending, weak exports, and the looming "fiscal cliff." Moreover, the negative headwinds from Europe and Asia look to be more persistent than previously thought. On the plus side, housing is finally turning into a positive factor after a long decline. Nevertheless, the U.S. remains poised to at least partially fall off the "fiscal cliff," as politicians are likely to let the payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits expire at the end of this year. This should depress economic growth to below 2 percent in the first half of 2013, the Bureau said.  Assuming the econ...

Uncertainty over economic conditions may drag small businesses across America into recession. This fear was reflected in the October 2012 report of the National Federation of Independent Business, which showed that 38 percent of the respondents viewed the problem as critical.  The cost of health insurance, another factor that caused worry among the respondents, topped the same survey at 52 percent. Tied for the number three spot are issues that impinge on the cost of fuel and uncertainty over government actions, which garnered 35 percent each. Other worries of small businesses are unreasonable government regulations, 34 percent; imposition of federal taxes on business income, 30 percent; and  tax complicity, 29 percent. While other factors include frequent changes to federal rules, property taxes, and state taxes on business income, with 24 percent each. "At the beginning of next year, federal tax increases and spending cuts equivalent to 15 percent of the GDP will autom...

Economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific region may slow down by a full percentage point from 8.2 percent in 2011 to 7.2 percent this year, before recovering to 7.6 percent in 2013. Growth in developed countries will remain modest, with recovery in the region to be driven mainly by strong domestic demand in developing countries, said the World Bank in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Data Monitor, released today. The new report says that weak exports and lower investment growth will cut down China's GDP growth from 9.2 percent in 2011 to 7.7 percent this year. In 2013, however, China's growth is expected to rebound to 8.1 percent as the impact of stimulus measures kicks in, supported further by an uptick in global trade. "The East Asia and Pacific region's share in the global economy has tripled in the last two decades, from 6 percent to almost 18 percent today, which underscores the critical importance of this region's continued growth for the rest of the wo...